A bit late here, but anyway. A few lines and numbers from February.
It looked and felt so good there for a while, but another downturn swept the winnings away. Tough stuff, but that’s betting.
The take-way from this month is that I need to be more aggressive when it comes to securing best available odds. It’s not easy, since my current daytime project means I’m on mobile most of the time, so I need to find a suitable solution for that.
Quentin Frank, Flat Racing Master and Niall Lyons are out of the portfolio now for various reasons, so there won’t be as many tipsters in March. I’m going to be very strict on taking new tipsters on board in general, as I feel quite confident in my current setup.
A little bit more than halfway through the coldest month of the year, and it’s been a solid one so far. A little above target and a very nice curve to look at, apart from the dreadful few days at the start.
Performance vs expectations
There’s not much to say really. Basically all numbers are pretty much on target.
Here’s what my monthly plan, or expectations, looks like per month if you take an average from all tipsters. Compare it with the numbers image below.
Number of bets: 530
Total stake: 1865 units
Avg. stake: 3,6 units
Strike rate: 29%
Avg. odds: 8,7
Result: +120 units
February so far
Horse racing is back on track, and reducing the number of football bets feels like the way to go. The few selected bets have shown a profit. Golf has had no luck yet this month, but high highs and low lows are expected there, so no worries.
When it comes to tipsters, only Flat Racing Master has had a tough month, apart from the golfers. Apart from that, there are quite a few numbers that are nice to read.
I’m going to have to do a couple of changes in the portfolio. Sadly, I’m finding it too difficult to get on decent available odds for Quentin Frank Racing, so I’m replacing him with two other ones that I’ve been monitoring after being tipped about them and got a nice introduction offer. The new ones are Value Racing Tips from the Betting Gods network, the other one is All Weather Profits. Both of them horse racing tipsters that have gotten decent recommendations and reviews.
The American sports system I’m evaluating hasn’t quite convinced me yet. I might pass for now, although it would be good to have those sports in there for Bettin.gs testing purposes at least. We’ll see how it goes. It’s a very active service, so I might use selected parts of it.
In other news…
Not much luck with my own live bets lately. Been placing a couple of questionable bets, sure, but mostly it’s the lack of upsets in the games that I’ve been involved that’s done me no good.
Excited to see how the rest of the month shapes up. There are no guarantees that, but here’s to hoping.
A strange month of betting, as everything was on track the first couple of weeks before everything went south for 10 days followed by a decent revenge the last few days.
All in all I should be pretty happy with reducing the losses as well as I did, but these runs of losing bets feels very strange considering the number of bets I place in so many different sports from so many tipsters.
All in all the losses could be tracked to a couple of unsuccessful tipsters, while most others could be placed somewhere in the region of what could be expected in a less successful month. It would feel really nice with a good February to get into winning ways at the start of the year.
Football (-15.6 units, -4.1% ROI)
I barely expect any results from football anymore and the number of bets will decrease significally from February. I will be extremely selective with Winabobatoo bets, while continuing to follow Mr Odds.
Horse Racing (-71.0 units, -7.41% ROI)
The new tipsterI upgraded to the official portfolio, Flat Racing Master, didn’t have a nice first month with -66 units (-34% ROI). Interestingly enough, if I hadn’t backed him I would had broken even. Now, that the first losing month in 5, according to official results, so bad timing.
Jason James was also on the losing side, even if, thanks to a massive double, his official results will show profits.
Golf Betting Expert hit a 55 odds winner in the last tournamnet of the month, making the results for the two tipsters basically break even.
Official results for Bookie Insiders Tennis will show green results, but mine does not (-22.5 units, -5.13%). There’s a lot af excotic bets from them that I simply cannot follow based on market availability. They also record their results based on bets odds available from one single bookis, which abbsolutely needs to be taken into account.
Not a lot of darts bets from On The Oche, which is pretty much expected. Better results are to be exected going forward though.
In other news…
I have an American tipster in the trials account under the radar. A very active tipster, or system rather, placing bets in NHL, NBA, NFL, NCAA, MLB and more. I’ll track them during February, and if taken into the portfolio will be the busiest tipster by far. Stay tuned.
My live bets showed a profit of 17.7 units (+9.14% ROI), which makes me even more confident that my live betting systems are working quite ok.
A decent end to the year after all. If it hadn’t been for a heavy November, things would be pretty much on target. Anyway, good signs showing for 2017.
I’ve been doing some cleaning up lately, and I’m planning to be more conservatieve when it comes to new tipsters and will use my paralell trials-account at Bettin.gs to track those bets. I doubt there will be big changes in the portfolio at least during the start of 2017m but it will be interesting to see how much time that will be needed to keep the portfolio running in the current format. Might need to optimze that part to keep it at a managable level.
Overall a decent performance from all sports, football excluded. Didn’t expect horse racing to be so dominant when I started the portfolio, but there you go.
Sad to see Northern Monkey out of the portfolio, but that’s life for someone who can’t use bookmakers.
No doubt Niall Lyons and Premier Greyhond Tips will get back on track, and most of the red tipsters at the bottom are out.
The biggest loss comes from Winabobatoo, and as mentioned in the previous blog post, something needs to be done here.
The more the year passed, the more I felt confident with my betting and my routines (despite November) and I’m looking forward to the new year. I know whrn the tips arrive and how to get the best odds. It is a challenge though, being able to get on the adviced odds at some of the most prominent tipsters. We’ll see how it goes in 2017.
My own bets
I’m hoping (but not really believing in) to get more private bets placed, particularily in-play. I have found a few successful strategies that I’m certain will make me money, but I need to find the time to see more live games, which is not an easy task while running a business and having a 1-year old litte girl at home. The ROI looks good though, and I hope to keep it around 5-10% in the future as well.
Back in winning ways in a pretty strange month. The biggest take away is those massive golf bets that ended the golfing year with 200 units in profit for Decenber, making up for many other tipsters.
Golf betting pretty much saved the month, meaning most other sports kept struggling. Most problematic is football, where my systems based on the Winabobatoo data are just not working at the moment.
Football (-48.7 units)
Mr Odds is doing just fine with 38 units (+36% ROI) in profit this month, but Winabobatoo is having a hard, hard time. It’s a strange season for the service, with stats actually working for them, but results against them. I feel the need to write a separate blog post about this and what I’m planning to do.
Horse Racing (-20.4 units)
Master Racing Tipster had a very nice month with almost 40 units in profit (+36.7% ROI), while Quentin Frank went pretty much break even and Jason James had the toughest month in a long time, showing a loss of 58.7 units (-17.2% ROI).
A new horse tipster is coming into the portfolio in 2017. More on that later.
Golf (+200 units)
Absolute top tipster award this month goes to Golf Betting Expert, finding a winner and a place in the last tournament of the season, which made the month ending in a nice profit.
Not a lot of tennis bets this time of year (3 bets showed 10.4 units profit), but my new dart tipster On The Oche had a decent month in the PDC tournament, showing a profit of 2.7 units (+5.6% ROI) from 14 bets.
Greyhound racing made a great comeback from the recent downturn but still ending the month with a loss of 7.2 units (-6.8% ROI).
American Football also struggles this season and December showed a loss of 4.11 units (-9.12% ROI).
In other news…
Bettin.gs has had major overhaul during the holidays, making the site speedier and better to use than ever. Feel free to check it out.
All in all 9632 units invested in 3014 bets with a hit rate of 27.9% during these 6 months. Average odds from these bets were 7.35. At longer odds like this variation is to be expected, but at the same time it has been kind of a test with a downturn like this.
I’ve also made a few mistakes during this pretty heavy time, which I have tried to correct since.
In short, these are:
For new services, track all results without investing real money until you feel really confident that it suits your style and that they really will make you money.
Don’t fall into the trap and follow every tipster that seems successful. Be patient, and be very, very restrictive with who to follow.
I was of course using Bettin.gs to track all bets. They come from no less than 21 different tipsters, even if they were ready to be included in the official portfolio or not. This turned out to be far from a successful approach, with 4 out of 6 months ending in a loss.
I remember these months as the first real downturn, with far too many tipsters underperforming at the same time. I knew times like these would come, but when it did it almost felt ridiculously tough.
Since then I’ve started a private “trial” account, where I track the results from all services that may or may not be included in the portfolio at some point.
Football: -267 units (-10.5% ROI)
I followed several football tipsters – no less than 9 in total, where only one showed green numbers during this period. I was still using three well known systems trying to build a successful combo system, but it never worked out. I’m still a bit baffled why, but there you go.
Lessons learned: It’s hard to build a winning system in football based on numbers only and the result from most football tipsters are way below my personal bets’ results.
US Sports: -150 units (-12.6% ROI)
I also tried to find a winning system at a system covering American sports, without succeeding. I have later read an updated report for this service at Secret Betting Club, revealing several shortcomings with the service which i wished I could’ve read before signing up.
Lesson learned: Trial all services enough to feel confident they will make money in the long run. Personal advice: Stay away from ProComputerGambler.
This turned in to a great opportunity to clean out some losers, which I’ve also done since.
Sadly, during this period, as ironic as it may sound, I lost or was restricted at more or less all of my major bookie accounts, which pushed me to use exchanges like Betfair, Smarkets and Matchbook exclusively. That also meant giving up on one of my favourite tipsters, Northern Monkey, as he relies a lot of each-way, ante post and multiple bets.
Lesson learned: As above, be sure to trial ALL services before committing long-term.
It seems I’m back on track after a couple of less successful months. A closer look shows us just why.
One of my golf betting tipsters hit a 320 odds winner and a 80 odds place in the last tournament of the year. Safe to say I’m happy with the decision to spread the golf stakes and take this tipster on board!
Here’s how it looks so far. Winabobatoo has been a disaster but we’re much above the break even thanks to Golf Betting Expert. Diversification ftw.
Funny things these, ups and downs. The last few months has shown steady profits, almost a little boring, with some tipsters performing well and others performing worse. In a portfolio like this, it evens out supposedly. Usually in the short run and definitely in the long run.
November was a terrible month for basically all tipsters though and that put my bankroll under pressure. Luckily for me is that runs like this is part of the plan. At least as long as they don’t come too often.
Something I could had done to avoid it? Probably. I was pretty quick with replacing Northern Monkey with new, free tipsters, which is something I’ve now decided to revert. Partly because it’s too much work with more tipsters and partly because I’m not convinced they’d make my portfolio more profitable.
I’ve also put a little too many eggs in too few baskets, so I’m gonna reduce the stakes for the greyhound tipster a bit and spread the golf stakes more by adding another golf tipster.
Quentin Frank is replacing Northern Monkey. He’s another tipster from the Betting Gods network and has shown fine numbers and has great reviews from SBC.
I’m also adding thh golf tipster from Betting Gods to relieve Niall Lyons from having all the power. I’m dividing the current golf stakes between these two to reduce risk.
Here are the numbers from November.
Winabobatoo had a tough month after the fine start and the 30 bets there were doing no good. The greyhound tipster also had a very poor month and being relatively heavily weighted in the portfolio, it hit hard. Other than that, no luck with the new, replacing horse racing tipster that I might have been too fast with introducing.
The football honey moon is over for this time. Hoping the busy December in England will do me good instead.
I’ve had problems getting on the best odds for a few winning bets as well, which is something I need to think more about. I probably will have to do with second best odds sometimes to get not miss out of the falling odds completely.
Tough month, but to judge from other bettors I’m not the only one. Would be interesting to see over time if October is underperforming.
1687 units staked. A bit below the 2000 units target. Probably a good thing considering the results. The strike rate of 28% is a bit below the 30% treshold which is my goal.
This is a rare view. Football among the most successful sports. Hopefully this means I really have found an edge based on the Winabobatoo data that lets me find value, even if most of the Winabobatoo have had a tough start of the season. Too soon to draw any bigger conclusions though, but a nice start for sure.
This month sadly sees the end of one of my most reliable tipsters in the portfolio – Northern Monkey. Bets are too hard for me to get on at the exchanges and no option to play mutliples makes it impossible to continues. Highly recommend the service though.
Not a good start for the replacing free tipsters at SBC, who are all on minus this month. This is a rare case to judge from history though, so I’m not too worried.
Again, seeing a football service drive in most of the units is not a common sight.