July review: +57,8 units (+6,47% ROI)

I have been skeptical  about a couple of the services I follow for a while now  and this month was the one that finally made the decision to actually kick them out of the portfolio easy. More on that a bit later, because July was actually a nice month betting-wise.

Roughly 58 units plus from 274 bets, which is below the average, but that’ll even out as soon as the football season start (which is soon, can hardly wait). The ROI is pretty much right on target though.

Tipsters

All in all, it was another great month for Golf Betting Expert and All Weather Profits, despite the extreme low-season for the latter. Actually, all services delivered fine results with Jason James as the only exception, along with the kicked-out services Mr Odds and Premier Greyhound Tips.

Mr Odds has been underperforming for a long time now and as the results have become poorer, the formerly so well written analyses have disappeared, which has made me doubt the work being put into the service. That he has removed his stats from the front page of his blog now that they’re not as good anymore doesn’t really add confidence either. Good riddance.

Premier Greyhound Tips is probably a nice service to follow IF you have a working strategy for keeping bookie accounts unrestricted. I don’t even have bookie accounts and on the exchange (Betfair), it’s pretty hopeless to find value in the odds and low liquidity markets. Add a losing run to that and you have a very expensive service to follow. More sad to see this one go.

Sports

Looking at stats per sport and per tipster is looking very similar this month, unsurprisingly.

Changes

Conveniently enough, I’ll be able to replace one football tipster with another – namely Football Investor’s Combo system. A service I’ve been on previously (before this blog happened) and with a great reputation and historic results tracked by Secret Betting Club, I’m really looking forward to following it.

The greyhound tipster will be replaced by another long-odds horse racing service that’s been on my radar for a while. Also with a great reputation and proved numbers via SBCBet Alchemist. This makes my portfolio more horse racing heavy that what was planned, but there you go – value is value, numbers are numbers and profit is profit.

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June review: -49,6 units (-6,35% ROI)

I’m treading water here a bit. A loss for the month means I’m pretty much left on break-even over the last 4 months. Not good, not bad, but surely a bit boring.


There’s low activity among several of the tipsters, so in June there were only 271 bets placed, compared to the 350 I have planned for on a monthly average over a year. That could explain some of the results, but the fact is that almost all of it could be tracked back to Golf Betting Expert, who had a very poor month. Don’t read too much into the ROI column there though – there’s still a bug at Bettin.gs concerning each-way bets, which this tipster relies heavily on.

Tipsters


As you can see, not that bad apart from the golf. Premier Greyhound Tips made a loss but has shown signs of improvements lately, so hopefully his terrible slump of late is over.

Jason James had a stable month, as had Pro Footy Tips, with some great football results.

Master Racing Tipster continues to deliver – what a great service that is. I wrote a blog post about it recently, in case you missed it.

All Weather Profits is low on action at this time of year, but On The Oche keeps delivering units from the darts. Nice to have a low frequency/high quality service like that in the portfolio.

Mr Odds is my biggest question mark right now. His bets in Sweden are not giving much. I’ll make a review once the season is over (we’re about half-way) and make a decision then how to move forward. I’m mostly after his Swedish bets, as I’m having other sources to go on when it comes to England, so I’m not not sure I need the service going forward. We’ll see.

Sports


Horse racing is still the major sport in the portfolio, so I’ll be careful to add more services like that into the portfolio, even if I do have some looking really good under the microscope.

I always try to diversify my portfolio and I’m keeping an eye on services for American sports (NHL, NBA, MLB etc), another golf tipster, MMA and boxing at the moment. Really not sure any of them will get into the portfolio though.

We’ll see.

A closer look at: Master Racing Tipster

In these articles I’ll try to explain a little deeper the good and the bad about the tipsters I follow, why it’s the portfolio and how I think about keeping them in the future.

Master Racing Tipster

First off is Master Racing Tipster, part of the Betting Gods network.

This service has been part of my portfolio since September 2015 and has during this time become one of the cornerstones in it. Apart from a losing streak during last spring it’s been easy going all the way.

It took a while for me to figure out how to maximize the results from his tips and the info that comes with them, which probably has affected the profits that could have been bigger. Now I feel very confident in how to use the information, though. I won’t go into details here, as you probably need to figure out a strategy that works for yourself, but it’s no rocket science.

Over this period of time, he has delivered a healthy ROI of +8,37% from no less than 839 bets. The strike rate has been 26,1% and the average odds for all those bets are 5,28.

The 221,67 units of profit gives us a ROC (Return on Capital) of +148% based on the 150 units bank I have dedicated for this tipster.


All in all, these are numbers that I’m very satisfied with, but they could – and maybe should – be even better if I’d know the upsides and downsides from the start. But that’s how things work and why it’s fundamentally important to keep the long-term view. 

First, it takes time to actually know if the tipster’s any good. Then, it takes time to maximize the profits by adjusting stakes, timing and other practicalities. This often why Bettin.gs is such an invaluable tool for me. It lets me analyze odds intervals and trends and compare the progress to other services.

The good

The results speak for themselves really. An ROI of over +8% based on that number of bets makes it a service with a proven value and I’m planning to keep this service for a long time forward.

The service is very reliable and consistent, with emails being sent and structured at the same way at more or less the same time every day.

Practicalities

The tips come via email every night before the race, which means you do need to have your strategy clear if you plan to keep your bookie accounts unrestricted. Myself, I’m using exchanges only and it’s not always that easy to get on the advices odds, but I’ve found a way that works for me.

If you do manage to get the price advised, the returns will be quite a bit higher. Following the adviced odds would mean an ROI of over +30% according to the official stats (all historic bets and results are available to the public).

Summary

  • Extremely reliable service
  • Great results
  • Might not always get on the odds advised
  • Easy to follow
  • Absolutely part of my portfolio for a long time to come

More details and officiell information is available at Betting Gods.

May review: +14.5 units (-1.15%)

May 2017

I really need get better at writing these reviews while the numbers are still fresh, but I’m finding it a bit hard to find the time.

Anyway, last month showed red numbers for the first time in 6 months, and it was a strange kind of month overall.

Betting Stats May 2017
Betting Stats May 2017

I was whining a bit about Jason James lack of form, but wow – the tables turned quickly. In May JJ was the only tipster along with On The Oche and Winabobatoo to show profit, and it was a huge one. 167 units from him alone, making up for almost everything the other tipsters lost.

Tipsters in May
Tipsters, May 2017

Note that I’ve stopped following Insiders Tennis, and that the calculations for each-way bets isn’t quite correct when it comes to ROI over at Bettin.gs (I’ll fix that).

The other tipsters

Master Racing Tipster had a nasty month. That’s fine, he’s stil one of the most reliable ones in the portfolio.

Pro Footy Tips has had a rought start since joining, but it’s too soon to draw any conclusions at all. I do like his style of betting on the underdogs.

Golf Betting Expert is close every week it seems. It’s just a matter of time before he hits another winner.

Premier Greyhound Tips is still struggling and has a lot to prove. The last few months have been hard for him.

All Weather Profits has shown to be a goldmine and I’m really happy to have taken him onboard. His style of betting on BSP suits me perfectly.

On The Oche is showing a profit this month and I’m kind of enjoying betting on darts actually – even if it’s a low frequent service.

While Winabobatoo‘s season’s over and I’ve had a hard time historically to make any bigger profits I’ve decided to keep the service for another season. It was an exceptionally hard season to bet on away teams (which is what much of the system I use it for is based on) and I want to give it another go to see if the model really works out for me longterm or not.

In other news

I just want to point out that I’ve moved out a few old tipsters that were still tracked by my official Bettin.gs account, that really should have been in my account to track trials and possible future tipsters. This has made my results look quite a bit better, but that’s not the reason I did it. I simply want to have the ones that are, or have been, a part of the portfolio included in the stats. Everyone else is tracked at other places.

 

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April review: +17 units (+1.1% ROI)

April Graph

It’s hard to make big profits when the cornerstone in your portfolio are struggling. Jason James seems to be having a hard time getting things going this year and that shows in my portfolio’s result. A pretty straight-forward month overall, and I’m happy to be in profit.

Stats for April 2017
Stats for April 2017

I’m finding it a bit hard for some tipsters to optimize the odds. With Value Racing Tips for example, who’s so early with his tips, there’s the challenge to deal with it a good way on the exchanges. Get in too early and you ruin the markets, get in too late and you might miss the chance. I’ve noticed though that more often than not odds are rising, so my new tactic is to use BSP with a minimum odds set to the tipster’s recommended price (can’t understand that I haven’t noticed this feature before – probably because it’s only available on the desktop version of the site). So far so good for that experiment. Still not perfect for greyhound markets, but it’s easier than keeping check on all races in the evening and better than going for BSP, which is almost always way lower than the recommended prices when it decides to drop.

Tipsters
Tipsters

I’m taking on a new tipster from May. It’s another one from the Betting Gods network that I have faith in. A bigger odds football tipster finding value in more exotic markets. Suits me perfectly. Welcome aboard, Pro Footy Tips.

I’ve also decided to drop Insiders Tennis. Not because of the results, but a number of other factors that makes me a bit uncomfortable. They’re loud on Twitter when winning and dead silent when losing. A winning tactic for Twitter followers for sure, but that along with basing all stats on the best available odds instead of a more fair odds policy and an unpredictable amount of bets and some of them very hard to get on makes it a service not suitable for me. I’m sure they’re making money for a lot of customers though.

Not much more to say really. Many football seasons are over and it’ll be good to regroup over the summer. I have another football tipster in sight for next season as well, but more on that at a later point.

March review: +56 units (+3.3% ROI)

A fantastic month in many ways. The one dark cloud on the betting sky was very dark though.

1700 units staked, which is very much on target. The ROI is a bit below target, which is much due to the performance of Jason James.

I’m not worried though. It’s covered by the betting bank. Still, it’s a major downturn with 187 units down during March. Yes, -187 units. On the upside, the new tipster All Weather Profits showed a nice profit, as did Master Racing Tipster.

Golf Betting Expert also had another great month. His performance lately has been extreme, in a good way. Insiders Tennis was also a joy to follow during March.

All in all, a decent month which could have been great, but that’s the entire point of diversifying the portfolio. Onto the next one.

February review: +5.87 units (+0.31% ROI)

A bit late here, but anyway. A few lines and numbers from February.

General stats February 2017
General stats February 2017

It looked and felt so good there for a while, but another downturn swept the winnings away. Tough stuff, but that’s betting.

The take-way from this month is that I need to be more aggressive when it comes to securing best available odds. It’s not easy, since my current daytime project means I’m on mobile most of the time, so I need to find a suitable solution for that.

Sports

Sports February 2017
Sports February 2017

Tipsters

Quentin Frank, Flat Racing Master and Niall Lyons are out of the portfolio now for various reasons, so there won’t be as many tipsters in March. I’m going to be very strict on taking new tipsters on board in general, as I feel quite confident in my current setup.

Tipsters February 2017
Tipsters February 2017

Halfway through February: +73.6 units (+6.36% ROI)

A little bit more than halfway through the coldest month of the year, and it’s been a solid one so far. A little above target and a very nice curve to look at, apart from the dreadful few days at the start.

Performance vs expectations

There’s not much to say really. Basically all numbers are pretty much on target.

Here’s what my monthly plan, or expectations, looks like per month if you take an average from all tipsters. Compare it with the numbers image below.

Plan

Number of bets: 530
Total stake: 1865 units
Avg. stake: 3,6 units
Strike rate: 29%
Avg. odds: 8,7
ROI: +6,5%
Result: +120 units

February so far

Your stats | Bettin.gs.png

Your stats | Bettin.gs.png

Sports

Horse racing is back on track, and reducing the number of football bets feels like the way to go. The few selected bets have shown a profit. Golf has had no luck yet this month, but high highs and low lows are expected there, so no worries.

Your stats | Bettin.gs.png

Tipsters

When it comes to tipsters, only Flat Racing Master has had a tough month, apart from the golfers. Apart from that, there are quite a few numbers that are nice to read.

Your stats | Bettin.gs.png

Changes

I’m going to have to do a couple of changes in the portfolio. Sadly, I’m finding it too difficult to get on decent available odds for Quentin Frank Racing, so I’m replacing him with two other ones that I’ve been monitoring after being tipped about them and got a nice introduction offer. The new ones are Value Racing Tips from the Betting Gods network, the other one is All Weather Profits. Both of them horse racing tipsters that have gotten decent recommendations and reviews.

The American sports system I’m evaluating hasn’t quite convinced me yet. I might pass for now, although it would be good to have those sports in there for Bettin.gs testing purposes at least. We’ll see how it goes. It’s a very active service, so I might use selected parts of it.

In other news…

Not much luck with my own live bets lately. Been placing a couple of questionable bets, sure, but mostly it’s the lack of upsets in the games that I’ve been involved that’s done me no good.

Excited to see how the rest of the month shapes up. There are no guarantees that, but here’s to hoping.

January review: -64 units (-3.3% ROI)

A strange month of betting, as everything was on track the first couple of weeks before everything went south for 10 days followed by a decent revenge the last few days.

All in all I should be pretty happy with reducing the losses as well as I did, but these runs of losing bets feels very strange considering the number of bets I place in so many different sports from so many tipsters.

All in all the losses could be tracked to a couple of unsuccessful tipsters, while most others could be placed somewhere in the region of what could be expected in a less successful month. It would feel really nice with a good February to get into winning ways at the start of the year.

Stats per sport January 2017
Stats per sport January 2017

Football (-15.6 units, -4.1% ROI)

I barely expect any results from football anymore and the number of bets will decrease significally from February. I will be extremely selective with Winabobatoo bets, while continuing to follow Mr Odds.

Horse Racing (-71.0 units, -7.41% ROI)

 

The new tipsterI upgraded to the official portfolio, Flat Racing Master, didn’t have a nice first month with -66 units (-34% ROI). Interestingly enough, if I hadn’t backed him I would had broken even. Now, that the first losing month in 5, according to official results, so bad timing.

Jason James was also on the losing side, even if, thanks to a massive double, his official results will show profits.

Master Racing Tipster was the bright spot when it comes to horse racing with 38 units in (+26.4% ROI).

Golf (-5.16 units, -4.13% ROI)

Golf Betting Expert hit a 55 odds winner in the last tournamnet of the month, making the results for the two tipsters basically break even.

Other sports

Official results for Bookie Insiders Tennis will show green results, but mine does not (-22.5 units, -5.13%). There’s a lot af excotic bets from them that I simply cannot follow based on market availability. They also record their results based on bets odds available from one single bookis, which abbsolutely needs  to be taken into account.

Premier Greyhound Tips had a cracking month with 36.5 units in (+54.9% ROI). Superb results from 26 bets.

Not a lot of darts bets from On The Oche, which is pretty much expected. Better results are to be exected going forward though.

Results per tipster in Januari 2017
Results per tipster in Januari 2017

In other news…

I have an American tipster in the trials account under the radar. A very active tipster, or system rather, placing bets in NHL, NBA, NFL, NCAA, MLB and more. I’ll track them during February, and if taken into the portfolio will be the busiest tipster by far. Stay tuned.

My live bets showed a profit of 17.7 units (+9.14% ROI), which makes me even more confident that my live betting systems are working quite ok.

All my bets are tracked at bettin.gs/samuelericson.

July – December 2016: +210 units (+2,98% ROI)

A decent end to the year after all. If it hadn’t been for a heavy November, things would be pretty much on target. Anyway, good signs showing for 2017.

I’ve been doing some cleaning up lately, and I’m planning to be more conservatieve when it comes to new tipsters and will use my paralell trials-account at Bettin.gs to track those bets. I doubt there will be big changes in the portfolio at least during the start of 2017m but it will be interesting to see how much time that will be needed to keep the portfolio running in the current format. Might need to optimze that part to keep it at a managable level.

Sports

Overall a decent performance from all sports, football excluded. Didn’t expect horse racing to be so dominant when I started the portfolio, but there you go.

Tipsters

Sad to see Northern Monkey out of the portfolio, but that’s life for someone who can’t use bookmakers.

No doubt Niall Lyons and Premier Greyhond Tips will get back on track, and most of the red tipsters at the bottom are out.

The biggest loss comes from Winabobatoo, and as mentioned in the previous blog post, something needs to be done here.

The more the year passed, the more I felt confident with my betting and my routines (despite November) and I’m looking forward to the new year. I know whrn the tips arrive and how to get the best odds. It is a challenge though, being able to get on the adviced odds at some of the most prominent tipsters. We’ll see how it goes in 2017.

My own bets

I’m hoping (but not really believing in) to get more private bets placed, particularily in-play. I have found a few successful strategies that I’m certain will make me money, but I need to find the time to see more live games, which is not an easy task while running a business and having a 1-year old litte girl at home. The ROI looks good though, and I hope to keep it around 5-10% in the future as well.

Here’s to the new year!